The Growing Threat of Flooding
By: Safia Malin
Contrary to the beliefs of skeptics (and seemingly all of the Republican presidential nominees), climate change is a legitimate phenomenon that we ought to all be concerned with. Due to global climate change, the state of California has been experiencing record drought conditions for the past couple of years. The melting of glaciers and the polar ice caps have led to rising sea levels that threaten coastal cities across the world. Natural disasters, such as hurricanes, are intensifying, evident with Hurricane Patricia, one of the most powerful hurricanes in history that hit Southwestern Mexico a few short months ago. States, cities, and people like us are having to face the repercussions of global climate change. Here in my home state of Colorado, we have witnessed increased rainfall, among other things, powerful enough to cause massive floods, like we saw in 2013. In response to such growing natural disaster threats, many resilience programs and organizations of have sprung up around the world with one major objective: instead of pretending these conditions don’t exist or don’t have the potential to occur in the future, we must take the initiative and put effective preventive measures in place. Resilience programs might just be our saving grace.
The role of climate change
Scientists, scholars, and average citizens have been discussing the potential effects from man-made climate change on the earth. We’ve seen the numerous pleas to save our polar bears from impending doom with the melting of the polar ice caps, for example. Many scientists discuss the increasing threat of floods and often cite climate change as the main culprit.
While there are causes of climate change that can be explained with natural causes, the earth’s climate has been rapidly warming since the introduction of things like coal burning. This change can be reflected in not only warmer temperatures, but also in the length of seasons. For example, some scientists often claim that climate change has resulted in longer and significantly warmer summers. Each year, it seems we are beating our own record for the hottest year.
Climate change is also reflected in storm patterns. For example, according to NASA, while the changing climate may decrease the amount of storms we see overall, the earth is also subject to an increase in more intense storms. “As temperatures continue to rise, more and more water vapor could evaporate into the atmosphere, and the water vapor is the fuel for storms.” This change can also be reflected in the climate being experienced around the poles and the equator. “The combined result of increased temperatures over land, decreased equator versus pole temperature differences, and increased humidity could be increasingly intense cycles of droughts and floods as more of a region’s precipitation falls in a single large storm rather than a series of small ones,” according to NASA.
Many people including Republican presidential candidates do not seem alarmed at such changes. “I’ll tell you what I think about climate change. The temperature’s either going up or down at any point in time, so it really is not a big deal,” claims Republican presidential candidate Dr. Ben Carson. Another Republican running for president, Senator Marco Rubio from Florida, believes, “Our climate is always changing. And what they have chosen to do is take a handful of decades of research and say that this now evidence of a longer term trend and that’s directly and almost solely attributable to manmade activity. I do not agree with that.” While those two don’t represent the whole of the the American people or the Republican party, it definitely showcases how climate change does not seem to be a real threat in many people’s minds. Others who have experienced the intensification of storms, however, feel differently. When it comes to storms that are intensifying, I immediately think of the severe floods of 2013 in my home state of Colorado.
Rain Rain, Go Away
In September of 2013, the climate in Colorado was seemingly normal and typical of that time period/season. Yet, in mid-September, the state began experiencing extreme rainfall and the conditions for floods were began to quickly spread across the 150 miles. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, in only a couple of days of intense rainfall, roads were completely washed out, bodies of water were overflowing, and many people’s homes were being destroyed. In addition, there were 6 deaths confirmed as well as over 1,000 people missing. Among the places in Colorado that were the most susceptible to severe flooding, Boulder and Lyons took the brunt of the storm.
Residents of Colorado examining the impact of the flood.
Melynda Slaughter, and many Colorado residents like her, had very little time to even prepare for the increase in rainfall. “We awoke to our dam (which was also our driveway) gone and water flooding through our basement,” says Slaughter, a resident of Big Elk Meadows (which is between Estes Park and Lyons). “We started early that morning digging trenches around the house because the water was surging through the house.”
It took a considerable amount of time to begin to repair the destroyed buildings and homes in Colorado. Slaughter’s family didn’t own the home they were living in, and the owner of the house did have flood insurance. However, the owner’s insurance was deemed void because the storm was, “an earth moving event.” This was the case for many Colorado residents. In Boulder, several students attending the University of Colorado Boulder pitched in to help members of the surrounding community. In fact, according to the university’s website, almost 200 students volunteered for the clean up efforts. In addition to the many homes that were destroyed, entire streets crumbled as seen in the image below.
The aftermath of a street that held large amounts of flood water.
According to Jon Erdman of the Weather Channel, Colorado experienced some record storms that month. Average rainfall for Boulder is about 1.63 inches. In September of 2013 (actually only in the span of less than 7 days), Boulder received nine times that much in rainfall. This was the case for other cities too. The city I live in, Aurora, reported rainfall of about 11.5 inches.
In addition to being unable to adequately prepare for the storm ahead of time, many residents had to weather the storm inside and were stranded for days. “We emptied our freezer in the basement so food was plentiful and we had propane stove and large fireplace to cook. Water was the difficult part,” Slaughter recalls. “All of the telephone poles went down river so no one had phones. No cell towers there so no cell availability.”
Russ Schumacher, a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, claimed that the intense rainfall qualified as a 1,000-year event. And according to Bob Henson, of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, “an identical weather event a century ago might produce a much different flood than the same event today.” As for this storm, the damage was life changing.
Scientists out of Boulder, and around the country, claimed that climate change was to blame for the Colorado storm from 2013. Kevin Trenberth, the senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, released a paper, along with his colleagues, called The Attribution of Climate Extreme Events. In the paper, Trenberth claims that manmade climate change is to responsible for “exacerbating” the impact of several storms. Among those storms, he cites the Colorado floods and Hurricane Sandy, that devastated the east coast. The scientists involved stated that we should focus less on the dynamics of specific storms at a time, but rather, consider the “underlying thermodynamics.” That means, ”higher sea surface temperature and more plentiful atmospheric water vapor,” can cause the weather systems to gain strength.
This event seems to be an indicator of storms to come, and isn’t an isolated incident. Cities around the world have been subject to intensifying floods, as well. In Chennai, India, increased levels of precipitation since late October, have resulted in the deaths of over 300 people and the destruction of many homes and businesses. Some are claiming that this is the worst rains the city has received for the last 100 years. This past November was the wettest November the city had faced in over 20 years. This increase in precipitation comes on the heels of a monsoon season that was lower than what they are accustomed to receiving.
Residents of Chennai attempting to navigate through the flooded streets.
In late 2014 and early 2015, numerous countries in Southern Africa also experienced a heavier seasonal rainfall. According to reliefweb, Southern Malawi reported a 400% increase in rainfall, and it resulted in their Shire River ballooning to the highest level it’s been in 30 years. The island of Madagascar had been experiencing weeks of heavy rainfall before Tropical Storm Chedza hit the coast. “Continuing rainfall not only exacerbated the impact of Chedza, but also caused flood conditions over the north of the country,” reliefweb said.
As evident in such accounts, it is clear that the risk of extreme flooding is becoming more and more likely as the globe continues to warm. It is important to note that the risk of flooding can also be exacerbated by rising sea levels. It is more than likely you’ve heard about the claim that some coastal cities will eventually be flooded due to these rising levels in different bodies of water. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published a study in 2015 in which they speculate that more 400 cities are already at a point of no return. This means that regardless of any efforts made by humans now to reduce carbon emissions, the people in these cities are sitting ducks. In an interview with the Huffington Post, Benjamin Strauss of Climate Central said that, “even in a best-case carbon emissions scenario, 98 percent of populated land in New Orleans would be below the future sea-level.”
An infographic from the Union of Concerned Scientists depicting the threat of intensifying storms and its impact on rising sea levels.
Looking Ahead
As a response to various effects of climate change, many organizations and people have come together to design resilience programs. Resilience programs acknowledge the implications of climate change and are designing more effective preventative measures, and they are quite fascinating. “Resilience reflects a city's ability to persevere in the face of emergency, to continue its core mission despite daunting challenges, and is as appropriate to discussions about Venice's rising tides as Medellin's corruption, Detroit's unemployment as Budapest's floods,” said Bruce Watson of The Guardian. Resilience programs essentially, acknowledge the implications of climate change and work to design effective preventative measures. These programs are as diverse as they are fascinating.
To adequately put preventive measures into place, different weather organizations have been working on improving weather devices to make them more efficient. Updating flood maps are an important part of any resilient program. According to FEMA, flood maps are a tool used to inform local communities about their areas about their flood risk. “It helps set minimum floodplain standards so that your community builds safely resiliently.” After properly assessing the risk, communities can decide whether or not it would be dangerous to build homes in that area. This plan can also be reflected in the construction of dams and levees, as barriers for the likelihood of intense rainfall. Coastal storms were responsible for 6 out of the top 10 most expensive natural disasters. For that reason, FEMA, and sources like it, have begun studying the risk of of coastal flooding more frequently.
The Zurich Company created their flood resilience alliance in 2013. Their objective was to enhance flood resilience within different communities. “Definitions of ‘resilience’ abound. What is lacking are practical ways to help communities adopt and enhance it.” Promoting and enhancing flood resilience is important to The Zurich Company for many reasons, among them the fact that the amount of worldwide floods doubled in the span of 10 years, coastal floods will be increasing in the next couple of years, and factors such as population growth will just exacerbate the losses due to flooding. Their route to resilience includes, “robustness (the ability to withstand shock), redundancy (functional diversity), resourcefulness (ability to mobilize when threatened), and rapidity (ability to contain losses and recover in a timely manner.” Germany experienced one of their most severe storms in history, in 2013. Just a few short days later, Zurich had people on the ground assessing the damage. Complete with claim analysis and volunteers to help with clean up, Zurich used this example to promote preventive flood awareness. Zurich also has a branch in North America. Zurich partnered with six charities and over 250 local non-profits across the country to foster their disaster preparedness plans.
This map shows the areas in which we have seen large floods between 1985-2010.
Resilient Communities for America is another organization advocating for a more resilient country. Their website cites climate change as being the responsible factor for these worsening conditions. Their website lists four ways that a community uses to become more resilient. They are, “1. Prepare for climate change and extreme weather, 2. Expand renewables and energy efficiency, 3. Renew and strengthen infrastructure, 4. Strengthen the local economy.” While they acknowledge the fact that resilience won’t look identical in any two places, they feel these are four steps that communities around America can begin with. Another organization working towards resilience, is the 100 Resilient Cities program. Boulder, Colorado happens to be a member. Fostering both resilience and adaptation in Boulder has proved to be quite difficult. Officials from Boulder and the 100 Resilient Cities organization took a tour through the area once the immediate danger of the floods had subsided. Although Boulder had a history of building sustainably, the floods exposed massive gaps in their preparedness. 100 Resilient Cities runs workshops called Build Your Resilientville and people from the community are encouraged to come work together to create solutions that work for them.
Conclusion
It is clear that the threat of severe flooding is continuing to grow. There are several other factors that are continuing to exacerbate this threat as well. Although these resilient programs, such as the ones we discussed, have a lot of work ahead of them to foster resilience around the world, it is comforting to know these efforts are being made. As Melynda Slaughter says, “I most certainly do think we need a wakeup call regarding climate change and the risk of flooding.” If the floods in Boulder are our wakeup call, then resilience programs are our light at the end of the tunnel.
